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Monsoon may lie below average line this year......

INDIA: The monsoon may fall below normal this year as
the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday, releasing a forecast that would add to the worries of policymakers and farmers after drought-like conditions last year was followed by unseasonal rainfall in the past two months.
The forecast is not in line with private agencies which had earlier predicted normal monsoon despite the possibility of El Nino forming in the summer.
“Quantitatively, monsoon rainfall is likely to be 93% of the long-period average,” science minister Harsh Vardhan said while announcing the IMD forecast. Monsoon rainfall is considered below normal when the rainfall range is 90% to 96% of the average.
The probability for below normal rainfall is 35%, for deficient 33% and for normal 28%.
The Met will update the monsoon forecast towards the end of June, when it will also estimate the rainfall for July and August, during which most of India gets the maximum rain. It will then focus on how the monsoon will advance over broad geographical divisions such as the northwest, northeast, south and central India.
Last year the Met had forecast that rainfall in June-September monsoon season would be 95% of the 50-year average, which is below normal.
The rainfall was finally estimated at 88% of the average, with northwestern states and central states being the biggest sufferers. A little under a third of the country received deficient rainfall.

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